WHAT MOTIVATES OBAMA: LEFTIST TURNOUT

The best way to catch a fox is to understand their lay of the land. Obama is one crafty dude, not that intelligent, but very cunning. By now, we know how well he sets the stage: race baiting; strawmen à la the big bad banks, the awful insurance companies, those thieving pharmaceuticals, and let's not forget Goldman Sachs, who single-handedly caused the economic downfall of 2008. Strawmen.

I fear we have just seen the tip of the iceberg, if you can believe that. In the desperate weeks and months before this November's elections, we will see some pretty amazing new moves, but wait til 2012. I shudder to think, but we must -- because it's just too critical. Knowledge is power, and we can succeed, the smarter and more prepared we get.


Dick Morris gives us some useful insights worth saving for that rainy day:

WHAT MOTIVATES OBAMA: LEFTIST TURNOUT
by Dick Morris and Eileen McGann, May 5, 2010

Why is Obama vilifying FOX News? Why does Harry Reid push an immigration bill he knows can't pass? Why won't Schumer compromise on regulatory reform and why does he try to hang Goldman Sachs around the GOP? Why did Bill Clinton blame conservatives who oppose big government for the Oklahoma City bombing?

All share one motivation: To increase their base's turnout in the off year elections of 2010. Going after FOX News stimulates a feeling of victimization on the left. The immigration bill and the new Arizona law catalyzes a Latino turnout. Goldman Sachs enrages liberal anti-Wall Street populists. By characterizing the Tea Party activists as dangerous, liberals are aroused to vote in November.

There are two ways to win any election: energize the base or appeal to the center. Obama is, predictably, choosing the former, deliberately pushing policies that drive Independents into Republican arms as the price for generating passion on the part of his supporters.

Turnout in presidential year elections averages about 20 points higher than in off-year legislative races. Normally, the decrease in turnout is primarily among the least educated voters -- African-Americans and Latino-Americans -- and among young voters. These groups are, of course, precisely those that rallied to back Obama and put him over the top in 2008. A falloff in their turnout would be fatal to Obama's hopes of continuing Democratic control of Congress.

So Obama is doing all he can to generate a turnout, even going to the lengths of fostering racial tensions over immigration to energize his base.

Ultimately, the two events of this past week -- the oil spill and the Times Square terror attack -- will work in opposite political directions. While Obama may lose the day to day effort to convince us that he acted in a timely way to contain the spill, the more damage the oil does, the more environmentalists will be activated and fears of off shore drilling will be stoked. Advantage: Obama.

And the reverse is true of the Times Square attack. While Attorney General Eric Holder and the Homeland Security folks may win the day to day coverage of how they located and arrested the terror suspect, pulling him off a plane on the runway at JFK, the entire episode will raise fears of terrorism. Voters will ask why we have had three attempted attacks on US soil since Obama took office (Ft. Hood, Detroit airplane, and Times Square) while we had none in the seven years of Bush after 9/11. Advantage: Republicans.

The more either story has legs, the more the spill spreads and the more terror fears escalate, the more the respective political parties will benefit.


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